Governance, Strategy, and Investment: Evidence from Hurdle Rates

This paper uses direct evidence from reported hurdle rates and discount rates to assess theories of corporate investment appraisal. We find first that hurdle rates are frequently below discount rates, suggesting strategic or managerial behaviour. To test this we use probit analysis to discriminate between this group and an alternative group, where hurdle rates are higher than discount rates. We find that variables representing the opportunity for managerial or strategic investment (e.g. free cash flow) or the motivation (e.g. low growth) increase the probability of firms having hurdle rates below discount rates. In a second stage of the analysis we analyse the relationship between hurdle rates and discount rates for both sets of firms separately. For example, we find that for the strategist firms, product R&D tends to be associated with a lower hurdle rate relative to the discount rate, while for the profit maximising group of firms, the opposite is the case. For the second sample, we also find that risk variables raise the hurdle and that there is some evidence for an irreversibility effect. Responses of the hurdle rate to entry also differ between the two groups.

Entrepreneurship, Spillovers and Productivity Growth in the Small Firm Sector of UK Manufacturing

This paper considers the sources of technological change and productivity growth in the small firm sector of UK manufacturing over the period 1973- 2002, focusing on the mechanisms by which spillovers occur between the large firms which perform the bulk of R&D and smaller firms which are the recipients. It is argued that the current volume of domestic R&D generates profitable and high productivity opportunities for smaller firms. However this mechanism ignores the ways in which R&D also contributes to the more general knowledge base available to small firms as codified information which frequently takes the measurable form of industrial standards. A simple model of labour demand among small manufacturing is developed which employs two measures of technological activity intended to capture both these channels. A co-integrating relationship based upon an augmented labour demand equation is established for UK manufacturing, showing the relevance of both channels for the explanation of productivity growth in the small firm sector.Key Words: Small firms; productivity; technological change; R&D; standards.

Reform and Competitive Selection in China: An Analysis of Firm Exits

This paper considers aspects of the competitive selection process in China - firm entry, survival, and exit - in an important sector of manufacturing, looking in particular for changes resulting from the latest stage of reforms. Using industry survey data from a province in North-East China, we find substantial differences in the process between ownership types. By conducting a simple decomposition of the aggregate productivity growth and exploring the determinants of firm’s exit using a hazard rate model, we observe a substantial rate of churning of enterprises in the sector, and find that the competitive selection processes operate, for small and collectively owned enterprises (COEs), in a manner consistent with a private market economy. In contrast, such processes appear not to be functioning for state owned enterprises (SOEs). We conclude that competitive selection in China is not providing a sufficiently strong substitute for corporate governance based on ownership.Competition; Exit; Productivity, Hazard Models

Profitability, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Robust Model of UK Manufacturing Investment

This paper uses a model of capital investment that ascribes a theoretical role to profitability and uncertainty in determining the capital-output ratio. Empirical implementation uses quarterly data from UK manufacturing over a thirty-year period, and unique co-integrating relationships are obtained for two asset classes: buildings and plant and machinery. The corresponding dynamic equations are also well specified. Non-nested testing shows that the performance of the estimated investment models ranks similarly to the performance of predictions from direct investment intentions.

Contrasts Between Classes of Assets in Fixed Investment Equations as a Way of Testing Real Option Theory

This paper tests the power of real options theory to explain investment under uncertainty, exploiting differences in the degree of irreversibility between machinery and buildings. It reports estimates of investment equations for each asset class using a large sample of UK manufacturing industries, with results that are consistent with the predictions of real options theory. Additionally, using a specially constructed industryspecific measure of irreversibility for machinery investment, the paper provides further confirmation of the empirical relevance of real options.Investment, Irreversibility, Real Options, Uncertainty, Panel Data

Creating social capital: the impact of international programmes on Polish and Romanian higher education

This paper argues that the impact of international programmes intended to improve the effectiveness of higher education institutions in transitional states is related to the extent to which the programmes are successful, through their various projects, in creating social capital within the institutions concerned. Based on case studies of similar institutions in Poland and Romania, the paper finds that projects developed within the institution had a more lasting impact on organisational change, even when the project was of an academic nature, than did externally-directed projects which were actually focused on achieving institutional change. Social capital theory offers an explanation of this difference, and suggests what the mechanisms at work may be

Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data

This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory. Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors, as recently suggested by Pesaran (2004). The cross-industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics. We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay. There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects.Investment, Industry, Irreversibility, Real Options, Uncertainty

Institutions and Long-Run Growth in the UK: the Role of Standards

In this paper we consider the relationship between the standards created by national standards bodies and long run economic growth, exploring the relationship in the context of the UK and the British Standards Institution (BSI). We suggest that standards provide a key enabling mechanism for the widespread diffusion of major technologies, while being generally supportive of incremental innovation and general technological understanding. In order to further understanding of this mechanism we measure the ‘output’ of the BSI by estimating the size of the BSI ‘catalogue’ available to the economy since its inception in 1901. The measure allows us to estimate an augmented production function for the UK economy over the period 1948-2002. Within a co-integrating framework, we find a statistically significant and unique co-integrating vector between labour productivity, the capital-labour ratio, exogenous technological progress and the BSI catalogue. The long-run elasticity of labour productivity with respect to the standards stock is estimated to be about 0.05, so that the rapid growth of the catalogue in the postwar period is associated with about 13% of the aggregate growth in labour productivity.standards, technological change, productivity.